What If? Questions that Keep me up at Night.

On a whim- I am posting a few “what ifs?” floating around my mind.

  • Ben Bernanke has made a career out of understanding the Federal Reserve’s role in the great depression and ensuring that we do not make the same mistakes. That’s great. But what if this crisis is very different in its very fabric, texture and causality?
  • What if we “get through this” and we cannot be absolutely certain that we have fixed the banking system?
  • What if the people making decisions don’t know that they don’t know? How can you design a fail-safe system to if you do not know its inherent risk?
  • What if all we are doing is pushing this crisis down the road until it is too big to fix? (if it is not already too big to fix)
  • What if this banking crisis is too big to fix already?
  • What if Adam was wrong and we have discovered boundary conditions to the capitalist, free-market system- and pushed through them?
  • What if inflation takes off and we are still not out of this mess?
  • What if capital flight occurs in the USD? Have you ever run up to a flock of birds and try to convince them to settle down again after they have been startled?
  • What will this all look like when it is “settled?”
  • What if the US taxpayer is “the patient” and President Obama and his economic team are “the doctors” and they don’t want to tell us how bad it really is?
  • What if this is all too pessimistic and things are not nearly as bad as they currently seem? The fact that everyone is running around and “fixing” things and shouting “black swan!!” is a tad bit encouraging.

Stay tuned… whether I like it or not, within the next 5 years I will find out the answer to these and all the other important questions I did not have the imagination to conceive of.

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